Australia¡¯s Department of É«ºÐÖ±²¥ Affairs has brushed off fears that the?latest measure to curb overseas student inflows?could leave institutions worse off than they would have been under the?stalled international enrolment caps.

The new mechanism, ¡°¡±, does not cap student numbers. Rather, it slows down visa processing for institutions whose overseas commencements have reached a ¡°threshold¡± of 80 per cent of their quotas under the now-defunct caps proposal.

Consultant and former regulator Claire Field said the new directive offered ¡°a more level playing field¡± than?ministerial direction 107, which it had replaced. But she warned that visa delays could continue because more applications would now be given ¡°high priority¡± treatment, increasing average processing time frames.

Delays could be acute for applications deemed low priority because institutions had reached their 80 per cent thresholds, Ms Field said.

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¡°With no details on whether the department has hired more student visa processing staff, many providers could end 2025 with 80 per cent or less of their original student cap,¡± she warned.

The Department of É«ºÐÖ±²¥ Affairs did not say whether it would devote more staff to the student visa caseload, insisting that resources would be allocated ¡°flexibly¡± to meet government priorities.

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But a spokeswoman said the ¡°on-hand¡± stack of offshore student visa applications had halved in recent months, leaving the department ¡°well placed¡± to process visas for foreigners starting courses early next year.

However, the Group of Eight said the government had ¡°shifted the goal posts yet again¡± by adopting the ¡°bewildering¡± 80 per cent threshold.

¡°Our universities have set budgets based on a number provided to them by government several months ago,¡± said chief executive Vicki Thomson. ¡°With just days before the end of the year, and with little apparent rationale, this number has shifted again.

¡°This backdoor to caps¡­fails to address the structural funding issues our universities face and will lead to even greater confusion for our international students.¡±

Other representative groups greeted the new directive more warmly. Universities Australia branded it a ¡°commonsense decision¡± that was ¡°desperately needed¡± to deliver ¡°certainty and stability¡±.

The Innovative Research Universities group called it ¡°a positive step toward a better and fairer system. The government must now ensure that visa processing capacity is in place,¡± said executive director Paul Harris.

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Peter Hurley, director of the Mitchell Institute for Education and Health Policy at Victoria University, said the government was ¡°using processing times to throttle the number of international students coming into the country¡±.

He said the new arrangement was ¡°a workaround that replaces another workaround¡± and would eventually have to be replaced, because it did not give the government sufficient control over migrant numbers.

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Former immigration bureaucrat Abul Rizvi said the new approach would have no effect on net migration because it would not influence how many applicants received visas ¨C unless the intent was to create a ¡°backlog¡± of offshore student visa applications.

Deliberately creating such a backlog would be ¡°unlawful¡±, Dr Rizvi said. ¡°Each visa application has a legal right to a timely decision.¡±

Ms Field said that even if visa processing time frames improved, applications still risked rejection. ¡°Just because a provider¡¯s visas are given higher priority¡­it won¡¯t mean any lessening of integrity checks.

¡°Lots of visa applications were rejected in 2024 because providers didn¡¯t understand the requirements,¡± she said. While an early year ¡°spike¡± in refusals had eased, the new directive still required ¡°high-quality applications¡±.

Ms Field said the ¡°clear winners¡± from the new arrangements were public training institutions, or TAFEs, whose students¡¯ applications would receive priority processing irrespective of how many applicants had already been granted visas.

The Independent Tertiary Education Council Australia said this was a slap in the face for its members, with many already facing an ¡°existential threat¡± to the viability of their businesses.

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¡°The policy openly discriminates against non-government providers,¡± said chief executive Troy Williams. ¡°It¡­appears driven by ideological opposition to non-government providers rather than principles of fairness and equity.¡±

john.ross@timeshighereducation.com